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☀️ Solar Potential vs Reality. Top 20 Countries by Land-based Solar Potential & Current 2025 Installed Solar GW

# Country Potential GW 1% land Installed Solar GW % potential built Notes
1Algeria2 70020.07 %Sahara mega-plans (10 GW) stalled by lack of export lines to EU; new 2025 MoU with Italy may unlock first 3 GW
2Australia2 100381.8 %100 GW rooftop fleet + big desert projects; grid congestion now main bottleneck—curtailment already >1 GW at midday
3Saudi Arabia1 90090.5 %NEOM & Sakaka online; 130 GW 2030 target needs 250 bn USD and storage—currently finance-limited, not land-limited
4Libya1 700<10.04 %Civil-war risk keeps investors away; 2024 GNU issued first 500 MW tender but no financial close yet
5China1 60089055 %Hitting land ceiling in East; shifting to 3 %-land use in Gobi + 200 GW desert bases; module-overcapacity keeps domestic LCOE at 2 ¢/kWh
6Mali1 500<10.03 %Off-grid mines (gold) driving 50 MW/y; World Bank “Desert-to-Power” 330 MW pipeline but security issues delay construction
7Sudan1 400<10.04 %500 MW Red Sea tender 2023 cancelled after coup; no grid export lines to Egypt or Saudi yet
8Niger1 350<10.02 %30 MW Gorou Banda plant online 2022; 200 MW Kandadji planned; uranium mines eye 100 MW self-build solar-diesel hybrid
9Chad1 300<10.03 %60 MW Djermaya PV + 25 MW battery (Chinese EPC) operational; interconnection to Cameroon 225 kV line would unlock 1 GW
10Kazakhstan1 25030.2 %1 GW auction round 2024 severely under-subscribed (only 300 MW awarded) due to grid-code curtailment fears
11Argentina1 20020.2 %Jujuy 300 MW Cauchari operational; macro & FX controls block new foreign investment; Patagonia 600 MW awarded 2023 but on hold
12India1 10011910.8 %14 GW utility-scale added 2024; transmission congestion in Rajasthan; new 50 GW ultra-mega solar park planned in Ladakh
13Egypt1 05020.2 %1.8 GW Benban complex finished; 10 GW West of Nile tender launched 2024—needs 3 bn USD HVDC link to Saudi or Europe
14South Africa1 00080.8 %4 GW procured under REIPPPP; daily load-shedding ended 2024 thanks to 5 GW rooftop boom—new risk is over-supply at midday
15Pakistan95050.5 %17 GW module imports 2024 but only 1 GW utility-scale added; rest is rooftop <1 kW systems—no batteries yet, grid still needed at night
16Iran900<10.05 %600 MW allocated 2023 but sanctions block foreign debt; domestic panel fab (MEHR) only 500 MW/y capacity
17Somalia850<10.04 %120 MW off-grid/diesel-replacement pipeline (World Bank Scaling Solar); security & port logistics raise CAPEX 20 %
18Mexico80091.1 %2021 energy-reform roll-back halted new utility tenders; private PPAs still active (400 MW/year) but CFE wants 30 % local content
19Turkmenistan750<10.03 %300 MW tender 2024 (ACWA-Saudi) under sovereign guarantee; no public data on financial close
20USA72023632.8 %Inflation Reduction Act 45X/PTC keeps build-out at record 35 GW/y; interconnection queue still 2 000 GW—bottleneck is grid, not land or sun

🔑 Key Take-aways

  1. China has already exploited >50 % of its 1 %-land potential, explaining its pivot into desert 2–3 %-land footprints and floating solar.
  2. North-African & Arabian giants (Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) are >99 % untapped their ceilings are set not by sun or land, but by wires, finance, and offtake contracts.

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