Australia’s diplomacy is being squeezed from two directions.
One noose in the North: Jerusalem’s grip on Muslim Indonesia.
One noose in the East: Kevin Rudd’s standoff with Donald Trump.
1️⃣ The Northern Noose: Jerusalem & Muslim Indonesia
In October 2018, Scott Morrison floated moving the Australian embassy to Jerusalem. Within 72 hours, Indonesia froze the IA-CEPA trade deal.
Frozen overnight:
🥩 575,000 tonnes tariff-free beef
🌾 500,000 tonnes wheat (zero tariffs)
🎓 15,000 student visas
💼 A$9.4b services access
Morrison backed down. Fast forward to 2025 the same playbook:
After the Rothman visa ban, Jakarta warned DFAT:
“Any embassy relocation will trigger review of IA-CEPA and the A$2b education partnership.”
Netanyahu mocked Albanese as “weak” on X. Translation: Jerusalem holds the Indonesian tap.
2️⃣ The Eastern Noose: Rudd & Trump
In December 2023, Kevin Rudd scrubbed his old blog calling Trump a “village idiot.” Too late. Trump told aides: no Albanese meeting while Rudd remains ambassador.
Frozen in Washington:
🛠️ Steel & aluminium tariff exemptions
⚓ AUKUS waivers at the National Security Council
🤝 Albanese’s White House visit
Rudd, the first PM dumped by his own party now risks becoming the first ambassador dumped the same way. 👉 Immovable object vs unstoppable force.
3️⃣ Canberra’s Unforced Errors
🤦 Morrison’s Jerusalem stunt handed Netanyahu leverage through Jakarta.
🤦 Albanese keeping Rudd in DC handed Trump a personal veto.
Both mistakes were avoidable.
Both mistakes are now structural.
Australia is adrift as the only Five Eyes country denied Trump access.
