There’s a moment in every empire’s twilight when the small print on a treaty turns into confetti. For the Philippines, that moment is arriving faster than a China Coast Guard water-cannon burst. The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty? In five years, it’ll be worth less than the paper it’s printed on. Why? Because the “rules-based order” is already on life support, and when it flatlines, everyone will discover what Indians learned in 1962 and Ukrainians in 2014:
Great powers don’t die for client states, they write condolence tweets in perfect grammar.
Soon, Filipinos will find out they’re not on anyone’s “Top 10 Allies” list. When the stick comes out, the US Navy won’t sacrifice one Marine from West Virginia for 1,000 Filipino fishermen.
🇺🇸 USA — Top 10 Allies
• 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
• 🇮🇱 Israel
• 🇯🇵 Japan
• 🇩🇪 Germany
• 🇫🇷 France
• 🇨🇦 Canada
• 🇰🇷 South Korea
• 🇦🇺 Australia
• 🇮🇹 Italy
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
🇨🇳 China — Top 10 Allies
• 🇷🇺 Russia
• 🇵🇰 Pakistan
• 🇮🇷 Iran
• 🇰🇵 North Korea
• 🇰🇭 Cambodia
• 🇷🇸 Serbia
• 🇻🇪 Venezuela
• 🇨🇺 Cuba
• 🇱🇦 Laos
• 🇿🇦 South Africa
🇷🇺 Russia — Top 10 Allies
• 🇧🇾 Belarus
• 🇨🇳 China
• 🇦🇲 Armenia
• 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
• 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan
• 🇮🇷 Iran
• 🇹🇷 Turkey
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam
• 🇰🇵 North Korea
• 🇿🇦 South Africa