Had the Soviet Union prevailed in the Cold War, China’s modern trajectory would look radically different. Instead of becoming the world’s manufacturing hub and a near-monopoly holder in critical raw materials, China would likely be locked in fierce resource and strategic rivalry with Moscow, not Washington.
⚙️ 1. No U.S.-Led Globalization = No Chinese Manufacturing Miracle
China’s rise depended on U.S.-sponsored globalization: open markets, Western capital, and technology transfer.
🏭 Under a victorious USSR, the world economy would have fractured into closed, bloc-based systems, similar to COMECON on a global scale.
📉 China’s export-led model would never take off, with no WTO entry, no regional supply chains, and no surge of Western FDI.
💰 2. The USSR Would Dominate Energy and Finance
By the 1970s, the USSR was already the world’s largest oil producer.
⛽ In a post-victory world, Moscow would extend control over energy flows from the Middle East and Central Asia.
💶 A ruble-based financial system would replace the U.S. dollar’s role, restricting China’s access to energy, capital, and technology.
⚔️ 3. The Sino-Soviet Rivalry Would Escalate
Even during the communist era, the Sino-Soviet split ran deep, driven by ideology, territory, and leadership.
🌐 A triumphant USSR would not tolerate an independent China on its border.
🔥 Instead of today’s U.S.–China rivalry, the 21st century would feature a Eurasian Cold War over Siberia’s oil, gas, and metals.
🪨 4. China’s Resource Strategy Would Never Begin
Modern China dominates rare earths, lithium, and cobalt through global investments and open trade networks.
🚫 Under a Soviet-led system, those networks would not exist.
🏗️ The USSR would monopolize raw material flows within its sphere, leaving China resource-starved and geopolitically boxed in.
