China’s Pacific priority ladder
| # | State | Why it matters to Beijing |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solomon Islands | Security pact since 2022; ports and airports viable for PLAN logistics; nickel and bauxite; Coral Sea choke-point. |
| 2 | Papua New Guinea | Largest population and EEZ; LNG, gold, cobalt; government still open to BRI port financing. |
| 3 | Independent New Caledonia | 1.7m km² EEZ, 25% of world nickel, deep-water port at Nouméa; symbolically pushes France out. |
| 4 | Fiji | Suva = PIF HQ; Chinese-built wharf; influential in regional diplomacy. |
| 5 | Vanuatu | Luganville wharf and runway upgrades; controls lanes between Australia and Solomons. |
| 6 | Samoa | Debt to EXIM-Bank; fibre-optic hub; Polynesian swing vote. |
| 7 | Tonga | Refuelling stop; US$110m Chinese debt; royal court cultivation. |
| 8 | Kiribati | 3.5m km² EEZ; flipped from Taiwan in 2019; vast fisheries. |
| 9 | Independent Bougainville | Panguna copper-gold restart under BRI = China’s biggest Pacific resource play. |
| 10 | Micronesia | Compact state but Chinese fishing fleets entrenched; votes with Beijing at IMO & UN. |
Australia’s Pacific priority ladder
| # | State | Why it matters to Canberra |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Papua New Guinea | Security treaty (2023); Manus base; Torres Strait approaches; 9m people on doorstep. |
| 2 | Solomon Islands | RAMSI legacy; AUKUS maritime corridor; major ADF exercise partner. |
| 3 | Independent New Caledonia | France’s FANC forces + Quad surveillance node; secures Australia’s NE approaches. |
| 4 | Fiji | PIF HQ; Blackrock camp; key peacekeeping partner. |
| 5 | Independent Bougainville | Panguna mine crucial for copper; stability still under ADF monitoring. |
| 6 | Vanuatu | Closest capital to Australia; Aus-built wharf & cyber centre. |
| 7 | Samoa | Hosts PIF finance process 2025–27; AusAid > A$45m/yr. |
| 8 | Tonga | Only has Aus patrol boats; royal stability matters. |
| 9 | Kiribati | Aus-funded runway enables RAAF/US staging; surveillance node. |
| 10 | Nauru | PIF secretariat rotation; detention-centre diplomacy; reliable UN vote. |
Ranked using five criteria:
EEZ size & sea-lane location, Critical minerals & fisheries, Security agreements & basing potential, Political leverage in the PIF / UN bloc, Aid dependency & debt leverage
