🇺🇸 1. Bush’s Gambit – A Political Masterstroke (2003)
In his 2003 State of the Union, President George W. Bush unveiled a $1.2 billion hydrogen initiative, framing it as America’s clean energy future. His famous line:
“The first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen and pollution-free.”
The Real Agenda:
- Detroit’s Lifeline: Hydrogen was a delay tactic, buying time for U.S. automakers to avoid stricter fuel economy standards.
- Killing the EV Threat: By pushing hydrogen (a distant tech), Bush ensured battery EVs wouldn’t disrupt Big Auto for at least a decade.
🇯🇵 2. Japan Takes the Bait – The “Hydrogen Society” Obsession (2014-2020)
Japan, eager to lead in green tech, fully committed to hydrogen under PM Shinzo Abe.
💰 The Costly Bet:
- $500M/year in subsidies for hydrogen R&D.
- $2 million per refueling station (vs. $50K for EV chargers).
- Toyota’s Mirai (2014): A technological marvel but only 10,000 sold in 10 years in the U.S.
- Honda’s Clarity (2016): Quietly axed by 2021 after dismal sales.
📉 The Flaws:
- Hydrogen fuel cost 3-4x gasoline no consumer would pay that.
- Energy inefficiency: 70% of renewable energy is lost converting water → hydrogen → electricity (vs. 10% loss for BEVs).
- Infrastructure collapse: Only 60 hydrogen stations in the U.S. (mostly California), while China built 500,000 EV chargers.
⚡ 3. Tesla & China Expose the Mistake (2015-2023)
While Japan wasted $100B+ on hydrogen, competitors moved fast:
- Tesla’s Model 3 (2017): Proved EVs could be affordable, desirable, and practical.
- China’s EV Surge: BYD, NIO, and XPeng flooded the market with cheap EVs, backed by government mandates.
- Japan’s Late Awakening: Toyota finally announced a $70B EV push in 2023, 7 years too late.
