A Bloomberg analyst recently asked the same question we all should “What sanctions exactly?” Because Iran’s energy sector isn’t just surviving; it’s booming. In 2000, Iran exported $18 billion in energy products. In 2024, that number skyrocketed to $78 billion the highest revenue in over a decade.
💸 Who’s paying?
| Buyer cluster | Flag | Typical payers | Currency & route | Share of $80B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 🇨🇳 | Sinopec, PetroChina, “teapot” refiners | Yuan via Bank of Kunlun, ICBC Dubai, HK/Singapore branches | $55–60 billion |
| 🇮🇳 India | 🇮🇳 | MRPL, Nayara, Reliance (spot) | USD → INR → AED via UAE banks | $6–7 billion |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 🇹🇷 | Tüpraş, private resellers | TRY, EUR via Halkbank & private lenders | $3–4 billion |
| 🇦🇪 UAE traders | 🇦🇪 | Sharjah & Fujairah shell companies | AED cash + crypto invoices | $5–6 billion |
| 🌏 SE Asia / LatAm | PetroVietnam, Pertamina, Braskem | USD → CNY → crypto or barter | $4–5 billion |
No SWIFT. No U.S. dollar. No OFAC-compliant banks in sight.
🚢 How does the money move off the dollar grid?
- 200+ tankers reflagged, renamed, insured by UAE clubs
- Bank of Kunlun drives yuan letters of credit
- Hong Kong shelf companies open and close faster than sanctions lists can catch them
- Crypto barter swaps, like Iranian condensate for Russian wheat, settled in stablecoins such as Tether (USDT)
📊 Iran’s strategic diversification:
Iran isn’t just shipping crude; it’s exporting higher-value products like condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Propane exports alone hit $3.6 billion, butane $2.2 billion.
In 2015, Iran ranked last among Middle East LPG exporters with under 5 million tons annually. By 2024, exports surged to 12 million tons, surpassing Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran’s petchem capacity doubled to 90 million tons/year with a bold plan to reach 200 million by 2030—backed by $70 billion in committed investments and 100 new projects.
🧨 Why “maximum pressure” is a paper tiger:
- 90% of Iran’s crude exports go to China, which openly rejects U.S. sanctions
- Price discounts collapsed from $18/barrel (2020) to $7/barrel (2025) amid growing buyer competition
- Despite nine Iranian firms blacklisted last month, petchem exports surged 11% the following week
🔮 Bottom line:
Iran faces bombs and sanctions, yet the pumps keep running. The debris gets cleared, pumps restart, and shipments flow—mostly settled in renminbi, yuan, crypto, or barter. Major energy consumers and producers find ways to move ships and money around any blockade Washington imposes.
If sanctions had teeth, Iran wouldn’t be on the rise after decades of “maximum pressure.” The energy flow is secure, diversified, and increasingly institutionalized beyond U.S. reach.
