Tier 1 – Continental heavy-weights
| Rank | Country | Key 2025 levers |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | BRICS chair, G-20 host, continent’s largest bourse, only African G-20 member |
| 2 | Egypt | Suez Canal, 19th strongest army worldwide, gas to Europe, 109 m consumers |
| 3 | Nigeria | Largest population & GDP, 31st global army, oil & fintech hub |
| 4 | Algeria | 4 % of EU gas, 26th global army, huge foreign reserves, Maghreb swing state |
| 5 | Morocco | Tanger-Med port, renewables & phosphate, Western-Sahara diplomacy, 58th globally |
Tier 2 – Regional anchors
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ethiopia | 2nd population, AU HQ seat, 52nd global army, GERD leverage |
| 7 | Kenya | UN-hub, Indian-ocean gate, peace-keeping, 73rd global power |
| 8 | Ghana | West-African democratic model, 66th global power, gold & cocoa weight |
| 9 | Angola | #2 oil exporter, SADC military, China’s largest African borrower (stock) |
| 10 | Tunisia | Mediterranean frontline, 75th global power, EU energy cables |
| 11 | DRC | 78% global cobalt/copper supply, export quotas reshaping EV chains, Great-Lakes pivot |
Tier 3 – Resource & corridor swing states
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Libya | Oil & migration gate () |
| 13 | Sudan | Red-Sea coast, gold, Russia naval base () |
| 14 | Cameroon | CEMAC hinge, 69th global power, election fragility |
| 15 | Zimbabwe | Platinum, lithium, SADC connector |
| 16 | Senegal | WAEMU diplomacy, Atlantic port, 2024 FOCAC co-chair |
| 17 | Ivory-Coast | West-African growth pole, cocoa () |
| 18 | Uganda | Nile source, 49 m people, EAC oil pipeline () |
| 19 | Tanzania | Indian-ocean coastline, AU industrialisation host 2025 |
| 20 | Zambia | Copper, Chinese debt test-case, SADC |
| 21 | Mozambique | LNG exports >7M tonnes, Cabo-Delgado insurgency () |
Tier 4 – Niche but useful
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mali | Sahel pivot, Wagner presence () |
| 23 | Niger | Uranium, Sahel corridor () |
| 24 | Burkina-Faso | Gold, coup-wave epicentre () |
| 25 | Chad | Sahel gendarme, oil pipeline () |
| 26 | Mauritania | Gas, iron-ore, Atlantic EEZ () |
| 27 | Gabon | OPEC member, manganese () |
| 28 | Botswana | Best governance score 2025, diamonds |
| 29 | Namibia | Critical minerals, Chinese port project () |
| 30 | Republic-Congo | Oil, OPEC, CEMAC () |
| 31 | Rwanda | 59th governance, Kigali financial hub |
Tier 5 – Small but stable platforms
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Mauritius | 51st governance, Indian-ocean cyber-hub |
| 33 | Equatorial-Guinea | Gas, AU vote buyer () |
| 34 | Seychelles | Indian-ocean EEZ, anti-piracy staging () |
| 35 | Djibouti | 6 foreign bases, Bab-el-Mandeb choke-point () |
| 36 | Benin | Cotton, Porto-Novo port () |
| 37 | Togo | Lomé port, phosphate () |
| 38 | Sierra-Leone | Iron-ore, Mano-River diplomacy () |
| 39 | Liberia | U.S. historical tie, flag-registry () |
| 40 | Gambia | Cashew, tourism, river gateway () |
Tier 6 – Micro & post-conflict (low leverage, high moral votes)
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Guinea-Bissau | Cashew, coup cycles () |
| 42 | Central-African-Republic | Gold, Russian presence () |
| 43 | Eritrea | Red-Sea real estate, Afwerkism () |
| 44 | South-Sudan | Oil, Nile, fragile peace () |
| 45 | Comoros | Vanilla, AU vote () |
| 46 | Lesotho | Water exports to RSA () |
| 47 | Eswatini | SACU revenue, absolute monarchy () |
| 48 | São-Tomé-Príncipe | Gulf of Guinea EEZ, cocoa () |
| 49 | Cabo-Verde | Tourism, Atlantic cable hub () |
| 50 | Burundi | Coffee, Great-Lakes buffer () |
| 51 | Somalia | Red-Sea access, post-election stability, US/Turkish ties |
Tier 7 – Minimal external pull
| Rank | Country | 2025 arguments |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | Guinea | Junta isolation, bauxite but no port leverage () |
| 53 | Madagascar | Vanilla, unique biodiversity, Indian-ocean () |
| 54 | Malawi | Tobacco, land-locked () |
| 55 | Western Sahara | Phosphate reserves, Morocco’s orbit, UN stalemate () |
