🔍 TL;DR
Lockheed Martin, after being excluded from the USAF’s sixth-generation NGAD program, is pitching a radical “NASCAR-style” upgrade to the F-35, dubbed the Super Lightning. The proposal promises 80 percent of the F-47’s punch at 50 percent of the price. The big question: Can a mid-life facelift keep the world’s most numerous stealth fighter relevant for another two decades?
🛩️ Where We Stand Today
The F-35 program has already delivered about 1,200 aircraft worldwide, with plans to exceed 3,000 units in total. It comes in three primary variants: the F-35A for land-based operations, the F-35B for short takeoff and vertical landing, and the F-35C for carrier-based missions. These jets are actively engaged in multiple conflict zones, including operations against the Taliban, Houthis, ISIS, and in the context of Israel’s conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah.
🏁 The Super Lightning Pitch
Lockheed’s proposed upgrade package focuses on four key themes. The first is Stealth 2.0, which incorporates NGAD-derived coatings and redesigned inlets and nozzles, offering low-risk improvements to radar evasion. The second is AI Pilot, which introduces optional manning and loyal-wingman drone control, though this brings moderate technical risks. Third, Directed Energy enhancements include podded lasers and next-generation missile systems, but these are highly experimental and unproven, making this the riskiest element of the package. Finally, Modular Core upgrades would enable plug-and-play avionics and new engines, another relatively low-risk improvement.
💰 Cost Claim vs. Reality
Lockheed argues that the Super Lightning could deliver advanced capabilities for around $125 million per unit, roughly half the estimated $250 million cost of Boeing’s F-47. However, while the unit price looks appealing, sustainment costs remain a major concern. The F-35 program already carries a lifetime sustainment bill of approximately $2 trillion, and any additional complexity could increase this figure even further. These cost estimates are based on Lockheed’s investor briefings using FY 2025 dollars.
🌍 Export Outlook
International demand for the upgraded F-35 remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia has expressed interest but faces skepticism from the U.S. Congress. India appears more focused on developing its indigenous AMCA fighter while also considering the Russian Su-57. Turkey is moving forward with its own Kaan fighter program and shows little enthusiasm for the F-35. Canada is reportedly reconsidering its order size, while Germany harbors quiet reservations about the program.
⚖️ Pros and Cons Snapshot
On the upside, the Super Lightning would keep Lockheed’s design teams engaged and leverage existing supply chains. It would also capitalize on the fact that many allied nations are already trained on the F-35 platform. The proposal claims to offer 80 percent of a sixth-gen fighter’s capabilities at half the cost, though these metrics remain marketing-driven and unverified. On the downside, funding this program could divert resources from NGAD development. Moreover, the F-35 Block 4 upgrade is already behind schedule and plagued with bugs, and shrinking export demand could undermine Lockheed’s business case.
⏳ What Happens Next
Several decision points lie ahead. In the FY 2026 budget cycle, the Pentagon must decide whether to allocate funding for a formal Super Lightning study. Congress is likely to hold hearings on whether delaying NGAD could create a capability gap against China’s J-36 and Europe’s FCAS programs. Meanwhile, industry competitors like Northrop and Boeing may pitch alternative solutions, such as a hybrid F-47/F-35 design, if Lockheed falters.
🧩 Bottom Line
The Super Lightning concept is technically feasible but strategically risky. It could extend the F-35’s dominance through 2040, or it could derail the push toward a true sixth-generation fighter just as global rivals are accelerating their programs. The next 18 months will reveal whether the Pentagon embraces Lockheed’s “cheap speed” proposal or doubles down on next-generation development.
