Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned visit to China in late August 2025 will coincide with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. On paper, it may look like a diplomatic reset in reality, it’s a showcase of how India has walked into the weakest negotiating position it’s held in decades.
SCO background:
🏛️ Founded in 2001 by China & Russia to counter Western influence.
🚫 China initially opposed India’s entry saw it as a spoiler with:
🇺🇸 Close U.S. ties
🪖 Border disputes
📢 Tendency to drag bilateral quarrels into multilateral forums
🇷🇺 Entry only happened in 2017 after strong Russian lobbying, paired with Pakistan to balance India.
📉 2025 reality: Russia is poor, sanctioned, and weak no longer able to shield India from Chinese dominance.
China Remembers
The SCO stage magnifies a fact Beijing already knows: India has lost its last chance to industrialize.
💸 No Western capital → shut out by rising protectionism.
🏭 No Chinese know-how → burned bridges over years of hostility.
📉 Result: stuck as a low-productivity service economy, unable to compete with manufacturing powers.
Beijing’s long memory keeps a ledger of Modi’s actions:
👀 Mocked Chinese as “small-eyed”
🚫 Pushed a boycott of Chinese goods
🏭 Boasted India would replace China as the “world’s factory”
⚓ Aligned with Washington to blockade China
📈 Claimed India would be a $10 trillion economy by 2030
Now Modi’s visit will be read in Beijing not as negotiation, but as supplication. The optics are clear: the guest needs something, the host doesn’t.
The Monkey-Taming Diplomacy
Without Russian cover, Modi will face China on China’s terms. In Beijing’s playbook, there’s a method for handling difficult partners:
🥢 Stick method → Beat the monkey until it obeys (works, but tiring).
🥜 Peanut method → Give small rewards, keep the monkey dependent.
🔧 Work method → Train the monkey to serve your interests over time.
What to expect from Beijing at the summit:
📸 Photo ops to give Modi domestic cover.
🗒️ Vague promises without real concessions.
🛑 No lifting of tech or investment barriers.
⏳ Implicit reminder: time is on China’s side, because India missed industrialization’s last train.
The SCO stage won’t be a reset it’ll be a demonstration of who holds the stick, who controls the peanuts, and who decides when the monkey dances.
