When the Nanny State Pivoted from Cars to Pouring Concrete: “25 Years On, Hair’s Whiter, But is Anyone Wiser?” 🕰️🤔

MELBOURNE – MAJOR PROJECTS SCORECARD (Transport & Water)

Project	Promised Cost / Date	Final (or latest) Cost / Date	Cost Blow-out	Delay	Value for Taxpayers Grade	Notes (BCR = Benefit Cost Ratio)
CityLink (Stages 1 & 2)	$1.8 b / 1999	$2.5 b / 2000	1.4×	1 yr	B	Concession to Transurban; now seen as positive NPV despite toll hikes.
Western Ring Road (M80) upgrades 2007–2022	$1.9 b / 2012	$3.8 b / 2022	2.0×	3 yrs	C	Delivered in 5 packages; some sections on time, overall 40 % over.
Regional Rail Link	$3.8 b / 2013	$4.3 b / 2016	1.1×	1 yr	C	Auditor-General: BCR 0.9; patronage 30 % below forecast.
East West Link (cancelled)	$6–8 b / 2018	$1.3 b spent	—	—	F	$1.3 b spent, zero infrastructure delivered.
Melbourne Metro Tunnel	$9 b / 2016	$13.48 b / 2025	1.5×	4 yrs	C	Auditor-General 2023: revised BCR ~1.2.
West Gate Tunnel	$5.5 b / 2022	$10–12 b / 2025	1.8–2.2×	3 yrs	C	PFAS contamination drove >$3 b blow-out; BCR now <1.0.
Level Crossing Removal (55 sites)	$5–6 b / 2022	$8.3 b / 2023	1.4×	1 yr	B	Program BCR 1.8; delivered 40 % faster per site than historical average.
North East Link	$10–15 b / 2027	$26.1 b / 2028	1.7×	1 yr	C	Business-case BCR 0.7; scope inflation (longer tunnels).
Melbourne Airport Rail	$5 b / 2026	$10 b / 2029 (on hold)	2.0×	3 yrs+	F	Scope & alignment still changing; not yet contracted.

MELBOURNE – BROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SCORECARD (Buildings)

Project	Promised Cost / Finish	Final (or latest) Cost / Finish	Cost Blow-out	Delay	Value for Taxpayers Grade	Notes (BCR = Benefit Cost Ratio)
Victorian Desalination Plant	$3.1 b / 2011	$5.7 b + $18–19 b contract / Dec 2012	6.1×	1 yr	F	Drought insurance facility; never run at full capacity until 2017; adds $608 m p.a. to water bills even when idle.
Federation Square	$135 m / 2000	$450 m / Oct 2002	3.3×	2 yrs	B	8 m visitors p.a.; prime civic and cultural asset.
Docklands Redevelopment	$7–8 b (1996)	$14.6 b / ongoing	1.9×	25 yrs+	D	190 ha renewal; land value uplift >$10 b; criticised for poor public realm.
New Footscray Hospital	$1.2 b / 2022	$1.495 b / 2025	1.25×	3 yrs	B	504-bed tertiary teaching hospital; first green-star public hospital in Victoria.
Joan Kirner Women’s & Children’s Hospital	$200 m / 2021	$220 m / 2023	1.1×	0 yrs	A	200-bed women’s & paediatric centre; now state’s 2nd-largest maternity hub.
Australian Institute for Infectious Diseases	$300 m / 2025	$400 m / 2026–27	1.3×	1 yr	B	10-storey super-lab; pandemic R&D hub next to Melbourne Biomedical Precinct.
Royal Children’s Hospital Redevelopment	$1.0 b / 2011	$1.3 b / 2011	1.3×	0 yrs	B	International award-winning paediatric facility; BCR 2.1 post-opening.
Royal Melbourne Hospital Royal Park	$250 m / 2012	$350 m / 2016	1.4×	2 yrs	C	200-bed acute tower; emergency dept doubled.
Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre	$1.0 b / 2015	$1.2 b / 2016	1.2×	1 yr	A	Co-located with RMH; integrated oncology hub; BCR 2.4.
Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre Stage 2	$205 m / 2018	$235 m / 2018	1.15×	0 yrs	B	9 000-seat plenary hall; major events generator.
Melbourne Conservatorium of Music	$110 m / 2019	$160 m / 2022	1.45×	2 yrs	C	University of Melbourne; world-class acoustic halls.
State Library Victoria Vision 2020	$88 m / 2019	$91 m / 2020	1.03×	0 yrs	A	Heritage-sensitive expansion; 40 % jump in visitation.
Melbourne Arts Precinct Transformation	$1.4 b / 2025	$1.8 b / 2025	1.3×	0 yrs	B	New NGV Contemporary, Arts Centre spire & public realm.
Big Housing Build	$5.3 b / 2024	$5.7 b / 2024	1.07×	0 yrs	A	12 000 new dwellings; 30 % delivered on budget.