Here’s the uncomfortable truth: the two scalable paths to carbon-free energy: renewables and nuclear are dominated by America’s main adversaries: China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺.
🌞 Renewables → China
China doesn’t just make solar panels — it controls the full supply chain, creating critical chokepoints:
🔹 Polysilicon
The high-purity silicon used to make solar cells. It’s the foundation of almost every panel. China dominates production, meaning any export restrictions could slow global solar manufacturing.
🔹 Wafers/ Solar Cells
The heart of any solar panel, converting sunlight into electricity. Even panels assembled elsewhere often rely on Chinese-made cells.
🔹 Rare Earths
Elements like neodymium and dysprosium are critical for permanent magnets in wind turbines. China mines and processes most rare earths, controlling wind turbine technology.
🔹 Battery-grade Lithium & Graphite 🔋
Lithium and graphite are essential for EV and grid storage batteries. Even if mined elsewhere, China refines the materials into battery-ready form.
⚠ China’s dominance in processing and manufacturing makes scaling solar, wind, and battery storage highly vulnerable to geopolitical pressure.
☢️ Nuclear → Russia
Russia dominates the nuclear fuel cycle, creating chokepoints for both today’s reactors and next-generation Small Modular Reactors (SMRs):
🔹 HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium)
Advanced fuel required for next-gen reactors. Only Russia produces it commercially. HALEU allows reactors to run longer, hotter, and more efficiently.
🔹 Uranium Enrichment
Increases the concentration of the U-235 isotope for reactor fuel. Russia controls a large share of global enrichment capacity.
🔹 LEU (Low-Enriched Uranium) Imports
. Russia 🇷🇺 historically supplied a significant portion of U.S. LEU through TVEL/Rosatom, both directly and via conversion & enrichment services.
⚠ Nuclear fuel supply is centralized. Disruptions in HALEU, enrichment, or LEU availability can delay new reactor deployments and compromise energy security.
💡 Bottom line: Energy security ≈ geopolitical security. Right now, China and Russia hold the strongest cards.
