📊 1. The Headline numbers
- Indian-Australians: ≈ 80% two-party preference for Labor (RedBridge 2022; Indian Link 2025).
- Chinese-Australians: no bloc effect, Labor–Coalition split sits within the margin of error.
🇮🇳 2. Why Indians are locked into Labor
Demographics
- 72% arrived 2010–20 as skilled migrants; most now citizens.
- Median age 34, inner-city, classic Labor/Greens profile.
Issue salience
- Climate and multicultural inclusion dominate; only 14% rank tax cuts first.
- Perception test: 27% say Labor “understands Indians”; 25% say the Coalition; 35% say “no difference” but ironically qualitative answers keep returning to “they don’t like us” whenever the Coalition or affiliates like Advance Australia run a “African gangs” or “Chinese foreign interference” ad cycle.
True Foreign-interference from the BJP
- Modi’s 2023 Sydney rally with Albanese was carried live on Hindi/Tamil Facebook pages with 1.2 m Australian reach = free community-legitimacy advertising for Labor.
Outcome: once naturalised, enrolment is near-universal and preferences split 4:1 to Labor.
🇨🇳 3. Why Chinese-Australians swing
Size & footprint
- 1.4m identify as Chinese-Australian. Concentrated in ~10 marginal seats (Chisholm, Reid, Banks, Bennelong, etc.).
Issue-driven movement
- 2022: childcare + toned-down China rhetoric → Labor +3%.
- 2025 Lowy test: AUKUS framed as jobs → Coalition +4; framed as $368bn trade-off → Labor +6.
- 🏠 Negative gearing (62% property ownership)
- 🎓 Uni fee reform (international students as family business)
- 💰 Foreign-investment screening (racialised perception risk)
- 🛡️ Security rhetoric (“loyalty tests”)
🔀 4. The structural divergence
- Indian-Australian politics: one media ecosystem, Modi imagery, centralised cues.
- Chinese-Australian politics: fragmented media (WeChat, Xiaohongshu, local radio)
🎯 5. Strategic take-outs
- Indians: Now safe Labor base
- Chinese: the true swing diaspora that can swing 5% in marginals, enough to decide 3–6 House seats. Coalition may need to over compensate for Chinese vote in next few election cycles or die a slow death. Either is fine.
