| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Cumulative world GDP 1974–2024 (nominal) | ≈ $2.8 quadrillion |
| Cumulative petrodollar flow | $24.8 trillion |
| Share of world GDP | ≈ 0.9 % (rounded) Peaked: 3.9% (1980, second oil shock), Long-run average: 0.9–1.1% (1974–2021) |
Breakdown of Unique Outflows (never reaching U.S., ≈ $13–14T):
- Citizen welfare & domestic subsidies (OPEC countries) → ≈ $5–6T
- Non-U.S. sovereign-wealth funds (Norway, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar, etc.) → ≈ $4.7T
- Non-U.S. equity, real-estate, bonds → ≈ $2.5T
- Aid & soft loans abroad (Arab funds, IMF/WB, concessional) → ≈ $1.2T
➡ Net petrodollar demand captured by U.S.: ≈ $10–11T
Cost of Maintaining the Petrodollar
| Mission / Region | Years | Direct & Committed Cost (2023 USD) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-9/11 wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria) | 2001–2022 | $8.0T | $5.8T appropriated + $2.2T future veterans & interest |
| Persian Gulf War | 1990–1991 | $96B | Incremental deployment after allied offsets |
| Routine CENTCOM posture & carrier groups | 1976–2024 | ≈ $1.5T | $35–40B/yr extra presence |
| Aid to Israel (military) | 1959–2024 | $251B | Includes Oct 2023–Oct 2024 surge |
| Aid to Egypt & Jordan | 1975–2024 | ≈ $110B | $85B Egypt + $25B Jordan |
| Libya operations | 2011–2022 | ≈ $10B | Odyssey Dawn + SOF/drone follow-on |
| Other Gulf allies & Red Sea ops | 1976–2024 | ≈ $190B | Kuwait, Yemen, pre-positioning, etc. |
| TOTAL UNIQUE COST approx | 1974–2024 | ≈ $10.1T | Comparable to net U.S. capture from petrodollars |
➡ Net benefit of petrodollar = reserve currency status, sanctions etc, but overall modest once security costs are included.
Next 50 Years: Electro-Industrial Economy (2025–2075)
| Segment | Global Envelope 2025–2075 | % of Cumulative World GDP (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| A. Renewable generation & grid | ≈ $90T | ≈ 0.72 % |
| B. Battery-metals processing | ≈ $38T | ≈ 0.30 % |
| C. EV manufacturing | ≈ $35T | ≈ 0.28 % |
| D. Charging + battery plants | ≈ $25T | ≈ 0.20 % |
| E. Robotics (industrial + service) | ≈ $250–280T | ≈ 2.0–2.2 % |
| Combined Envelope | ≈ $438–468T | ≈ 3.5–3.7 % |
China’s Position:
- Value add share (≈ 33% of total envelope): ≈ $150T = 15x Petrodollars net benefit
- Nature of leverage: refining, processing, manufacturing of global electro-industrial demand.
- Sustainability: no wars necessary leverage is embedded in supply chains and trade.
| Factor | Petrodollar (1974–2024) | Chinese Influence (2025–2075) |
|---|---|---|
| Economic Base | Oil rents (~1% of GDP over time) | Renewable energy, batteries, EVs, robotics (~3.5% GDP) |
| Net captured value | ≈ $10–11T | ≈ $150T |
| Cost to Sustain | ≈ $10.1T in wars, aid, military | Net-positive trade surpluses fund expansion |
| Instrument | Reserve currency + sanctions leverage | Supply chains, tech exports, consumer markets |
| Durability | Dependent on U.S. military + oil demand | Structural, diversified, path-dependent |
| Current Trajectory | Waning (green transition, de-dollarization) | Rising (BRI, industrial dominance, fintech) |
Chinese influence is sticky and rising, while petrodollar leverage is fading into history.
