The Olympic Flame Is Dying: LA 2028 Is Cracking — and 2036 Has No Takers
Hosting the Olympics was once the pinnacle of national prestige. Now it’s a poisoned chalice: politically costly, financially ruinous, and increasingly incompatible with modern geopolitics. The empty 2036 bidding cycle makes one thing clear: the IOC has lost the world.
1. 2028: The First Olympics Behind a “Visa Curtain”
LA 2028 was pitched as a low-cost, ready-made Games. Instead, it is becoming the most exclusionary Olympics of the modern era.
The Athlete “Exemption” That Doesn’t Exist
Executive Order 14161 claims athletes are “carved out” from immigration restrictions. But practice contradicts policy:
- Soft Bans: Iranian football officials were denied US visas for a World Cup draw despite identical exemptions.
- Administrative Limbo: Delegations report sudden “administrative delays” that conveniently last until after events conclude.
- The “Immigrant” Presumption: Consular officers now treat visa applicants from developing countries as default overstay risks. A 19-year-old Kenyan runner or Filipino gymnast must prove financial stability many cannot meet. Failure? Visa denied. Sport irrelevant.
The $5,000–$15,000 Visa Bond Wall
The new Visa Bond pilot program requires applicants from “high-risk” nations to post collateral before an interview. It’s payable upfront and refundable only if all conditions are met on exit. For entire African, South Asian, or Caribbean delegations, this is existential. LA 2028 is effectively a wealth-tiered Olympics.
2. Domestic Politics: A Legal Minefield
The IOC once prided itself on being “Political Teflon”—a neutral ground where enemies dropped their weapons to race. That Teflon is gone.
The Transgender Ban Collision
Recent US federal and state orders banning transgender women from competing in women’s divisions turn LA into a battleground. The IOC insists on its framework; the US insists on its laws. The biggest fights in 2028 may happen in courts, not stadiums.
Doping System Double Standards
The world watched in Paris as Chinese swimmers were tested an average of 21 times per person—often early in the morning and late at night—while US swimmers averaged just 6 tests. Yet, when US sprinter Erriyon Knighton tested positive for Trenbolone, the explanation of “contaminated meat” was accepted without penalty.
3. 2036: The Olympics No One Wants to Host
Normally, by 2025 the IOC would be entertaining multiple polished bids. Instead, it faces a vacuum. The “Bread, Not Olympics” protests in potential host cities have made it clear: citizens don’t want the debt.
- China Passed: The IOC lobbied hard for Shanghai, Guangzhou, or Chengdu. China ran the numbers and decided to invest in high-speed rail, 5G, and pensions instead. They no longer need a 3-week sports carnival to prove they are a superpower.
- Germany Said “Nein”: Berlin floated a centenary return. Voters crushed it instantly, citing cost overruns and security risks.
- Indonesia Got Punished: Jakarta showed enthusiasm but was sidelined and blacklisted after taking a hard line on Israel–Palestine issues. The message? Follow Western political lines or don’t bother.
- India Got Ghosted: Modi wanted 2036 as India’s debut. The IOC responded with delays, fearing a repeat of the chaotic Commonwealth Games.
4. The Verdict
The flame isn’t flickering because of “bad luck.” It’s flickering because the world is done with a system that preaches universality but enforces exclusivity. The IOC has turned itself from a “world’s favorite treat” into a “stale bun nobody wants.”
Athletes no longer need the Olympics to be seen. BRICS Games, Pan-Asian Games, and private circuits are emerging as stable alternatives. The Olympic era is ending—not with a bang, but with empty bids and empty stadiums.
