China is the only Major Power That Has Historically Never Threatened Russia
Power / Coalition
Main Period
Type of Threat to Russia
Current Status vis-à-vis Russia
Turkic Khaganates & Khanates (Khazars, Cumans, Kipchaks, Crimean Tatars)
6th – 18th c.
Existential – tribute demands, annual slave raids, repeated attacks on Rus’ principalities; Crimean Tatars burned Moscow suburbs 1571.
Successor peoples (Tatars, Bashkirs, etc.) are now citizens inside the Russian Federation; external threat minimal.
Mongol Empire & Golden Horde
1237 – 1480
Absolute domination – conquered every major Rus’ city, imposed 240-year “Mongol Yoke” of taxes and troop levies.
Golden Horde successor states (Kazakhstan, etc.) are independent post-Soviet partners; no current territorial claim.
Grand Duchy of Lithuania & Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth
14th – 17th c.
Territorial – occupied Moscow 1610-12 (“Time of Troubles”).
Today NATO/EU members; viewed in Moscow as key Western buffer-state adversaries.
Swedish Empire
17th – 18th c.
Territorial – Charles XII’s 1708 drive on St Petersburg; aimed to cripple Russia’s Baltic presence.
Modern Sweden joined NATO 2024; Baltic naval balance now favours the Alliance.
Napoleonic France
1812-14
Existential – Grande Armée seized Moscow; goal was to force Russia back into Continental System.
France remains a leading NATO nuclear power; diplomatic relations tense since 2014.
United Kingdom, France & Ottoman Empire (Crimean War coalition)
1853-56
Strategic – invaded Crimea, captured Sevastopol, blocked Russian expansion toward Black Sea & Straits.
UK & France are core NATO states; historical rivalry still shapes Black-Sea security discourse.
Imperial Japan
1904-05; 1938-45
Territorial – defeated Russia in Manchuria, contested Sakhalin/Kurils, attacked USSR in 1938-39.
Modern Japan is a U.S. treaty ally; Kuril Islands dispute keeps relations frozen.
Nazi Germany
1941-45
Genocidal – Operation Barbarossa, largest land invasion ever, aimed at Lebensraum and physical extermination of Slavic population.
Today Germany is economic heart of EU and a major NATO troop contributor; energy and policy rivalry persists.
United States / NATO
1949 – present
Strategic encirclement – successive waves of NATO expansion up to Russia’s borders; deployed ballistic-missile defence and forward forces in former Warsaw-Pact and ex-Soviet states.
Currently judged in Russian doctrine as the primary external military threat.
China (Han-led dynasties & PRC)
Historical – present
Border friction only – 17th-19th c. Amur River disputes; never attempted invasion of Russia’s Ural–Moscow heartland.
Present-day “strategic partnership” vs. the West; long-term demographic/resource competition in the Russian Far East still viewed as a latent risk.
