If the US Plays the Malacca Card, China Has Stronger Cards Ready
US-Indonesia Defense Deal vs. China’s Energy Fortress and Taiwan Strait Counterstrike
After blockading Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has now signed the Major Defense Cooperation Partnership with Indonesia to gain leverage over the Strait of Malacca. The goal is to pressure China into helping reopen Hormuz. This strategy is unlikely to work. China can retaliate by disrupting the Taiwan Strait — bringing Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to their knees — while easily riding out a Malacca blockade thanks to massive oil reserves, Russian pipelines, and industrial-scale coal-to-liquids technology.
The US-Indonesia Defense Partnership
On April 13, 2026, Washington and Jakarta announced the Major Defense Cooperation Partnership (MDCP). The agreement deepens military ties, training, and operational cooperation, giving the US greater influence over the Strait of Malacca — the vital chokepoint through which roughly 80% of China’s seaborne oil imports flow.
The message is clear: if China does not help lift Iran’s Hormuz blockade, the US may disrupt Malacca traffic. This is intended as a strategic countermeasure to control key energy routes between the Middle East and East Asia.
If the US Plays the Malacca Card, China Has Stronger Cards Ready
China’s Energy Fortress
Beijing has spent years building deep resilience against maritime blockades:
- Oil Reserves: Over 1.3 billion barrels in combined strategic and commercial stocks — enough for months of sustained operations even under heavy disruption.
- Russian Pipelines: Power of Siberia delivers tens of billions of cubic meters of natural gas annually. Expansions make overland supply immune to naval interdiction.
- Coal-to-Liquids Technology: China operates world-leading coal-to-diesel and synthetic fuel plants. With vast domestic coal reserves, it can rapidly scale production to replace lost oil imports.
Beijing’s Asymmetric Response: The Taiwan Strait
China does not need to match the US symmetrically. By imposing restrictions or a de facto blockade in the Taiwan Strait — using anti-ship missiles, submarines, and gray-zone tactics — Beijing could cut off critical energy supplies to Japan (90% affected), South Korea (80%), and Taiwan (98%).
These US allies have far smaller reserves and no overland alternatives. Their economies could face severe pressure in a matter of weeks, creating an acute dilemma for Washington.
Strategic Assessment
Indonesia’s longstanding “free and active” foreign policy makes full enforcement of any blockade uncertain. Jakarta’s own economy would suffer significantly from disrupted Malacca traffic. Moreover, a major closure would trigger sharp global oil price spikes and widespread economic fallout.
