Geological Determinism: The Dirty Secret Behind the G7
If you look closely at the formation of the G7, you won’t find a club built on shared ideology. You’ll find a club built on geology.
There was a fundamental “entrance exam” for Great Power status in the 20th century: Domestic Coal + Domestic Iron = Steel = Military Power.
The nations that passed this exam are the ones that rule the world today. Here is the true, geological origin of the heavy industry supply chains that built the modern world.
1. The Naturals (Easy Mode)
These nations sat on the geological jackpot: massive deposits of Coal and Iron located in the same valleys.
- UK: The pioneer. Had coal (Wales) and iron (Midlands) side-by-side. They didn’t need a navy to secure their supply chain; it was under their feet.
- USA: The giant. The Pittsburgh Seam (Coal) and Mesabi Range (Iron) connected by the Great Lakes allowed them to out-produce the world without crossing an ocean.
- USSR: The fortress. With the Donbas (Coal) and Krivoy Rog (Iron) in Ukraine, they achieved total autarky, capable of building 50,000 tanks without foreign trade.
2. The Aggressors (The Annexation Economy)
These nations had Coal but lacked Iron. To complete the formula, they used their armies.
- Germany: The modern German border has no iron. But in 1871, Germany annexed Alsace-Lorraine from France to capture the massive “Minette” iron fields. Their industrial might was built on a stolen supply chain.
- Japan: Possessing coal but zero iron, Japan didn’t just “import” ore; they colonised it, seizing mines in China and Korea to feed the Yawata Steel Works.
3. The Adapters & Latecomers
- France: Iron-rich but coal-poor, they became structurally dependent on German coal, driving the creation of the EU to secure energy access.
- Italy: Lacking both resources, they innovated early with Electric Arc Furnaces, recycling scrap metal to fake superpower status.
- South Korea & China: The Asian giants arrived late, proving that with massive ports and modern logistics, you could import the geology you lacked—if you had the scale.
4. Curse of the 51st State
- Canada: The “Industrial Satellite.” It sits on the geology of a superpower but functions industrially as the 51st State—a power that is wealthy but not truly sovereign.
Summary: The Geological Lottery
| Country | Coal Source | Iron Source | The “Secret Sauce” |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | Domestic | Domestic | Geological proximity (Coal & Iron together). |
| USA | Domestic | Domestic | Internal river/lake transport network. |
| Germany | Domestic | Annexed | 1871 Border change captured the iron. |
| France | Imported | Domestic | Political dependence on neighbours. |
| USSR | Domestic | Domestic | Total self-sufficiency (Autarky). |
| Japan | Domestic | Imperial | Military expansion secured the supply. |
| Italy | Imported | Scrap | Engineering efficiency + Recycling. |
| S. Korea | Imported | Imported | Maritime Efficiency (Mills on the dock). |
| China | Domestic | Imported | Scale (Cheap power + Global ore). |
| Canada | Domestic | Domestic | Integration (Northern wing of US industry). |
Conclusion: The “G7+3” Monopoly
Hence, the world is still ruled by these “G7+3” geopolitical entities.
The list of industrialized powers is effectively frozen. The G7 (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada) plus the three challengers (Russia, China, South Korea) represent the only nations to master the coal-steel cycle before the door closed. Because the environmental, economic, and military costs of building a heavy industrial base from scratch are now prohibitively high, this list is unlikely to grow. We live in a world permanently governed by the geological winners of the 20th century.
