Visual representation of the 2026 strategic shift.

Starting in 2026, the United States is entering a phase of ruthless transactional realpolitik. Washington will be forced to admit many of its long-term bets have failed and demand an immediate audit on investment or exit strategy.

Here is the pecking order of what gets cut and what gets kept.

The Reality: The US has recognised that the “green dream” is a logistical and economic bottleneck it can no longer afford. With approximately 50 years of accessible hydrocarbon reserves remaining, the strategy has shifted back to energy supremacy through oil and gas.

The Reality: Ukraine is viewed as a depreciating asset. The initial objective—bleeding Russian capability—has yielded diminishing returns.

The Rationale: Losing influence in Europe is seen as acceptable collateral damage. Unlike other strategic theatres, Europe lacks the critical hydrocarbon or mineral resources necessary to justify a permanent, high-cost hostility with Russia. Washington is effectively handing the bill to Brussels, fully aware Europe lacks the military industrial capacity to sustain the conflict alone.

The Reality: Strategic patience with New Delhi has evaporated. India is increasingly viewed as a “two-faced” operator—a beneficiary of Western security guarantees that simultaneously funds US adversaries.

The Verdict: The US sees India less as a counterweight to China and more as a geopolitical liability that cannot be trusted with sensitive technology or top-tier alliance status.

The Reality: Taiwan remains the single point of failure for the US economy and military.

The Stakes: This is the core of the AI bet. American dominance in artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and advanced weaponry is entirely dependent on TSMC’s fabrication capacity. Until the US can replicate this manufacturing capability domestically (a decade away, at best), abandoning Taiwan is tantamount to surrendering global hegemony. Defending the island is not about democracy; it is about maintaining the foundation of the modern economy.

The Reality: Despite political noise, the US-Israel alliance is deepening. Israel serves as a forward operating base and a premier R&D lab that the US cannot replicate elsewhere.