The Nickel Choke Point
The Sino-Indonesian partnership has engineered a market dominance that dwarfs historical precedents.
Market Control Comparison
Current Nickel Axis
Indonesia + China Processing
75% Control
OPEC Oil (1973)
At height of the crisis
55% Control
“OPEC set the precedent, but NickelPEC perfected the monopoly.”
The “Crocodile & Dragon” Strategy
Indonesia did not stumble into this dominance; it was a calculated geopolitical maneuver involving two main levers to secure the industrial infrastructure while China secured the raw materials.
1. The Export Ban (2020)
Banned raw nickel ore exports. This forced foreign entities to build factories inside Indonesia, transferring technology, jobs, and value margins to the local economy.
2. The “Dragon’s” Capital
China poured $65 billion into Indonesian facilities. Utilizing low-cost labor, coal energy, and weak environmental regulations, they created a machine Western miners cannot compete with.
The “Body Count”: Western Collapse
The flood of cheap Indonesian supply has rendered high-cost Western operations economically unviable.
| Company | Location | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP (Nickel West) | Australia | Suspended | 3,000+ jobs lost. $3.8B write-down. |
| First Quantum | Australia | Closed | Ravensthorpe mine permanently closed. |
| Glencore | New Caledonia | Shut Down | $9B investment yielded zero profit. |
| Various Majors | Canada | Insolvency | Sudbury & Caribou mines failing. |
Conclusion: The New Dependency
The global energy transition long heralded as the path to a cleaner, more secure future now depends on a single choke point: Indonesia’s nickel river, fortified by $65 billion in Chinese capital and Jakarta’s unyielding downstream policy.
A single decree from the new administration in Jakarta, a quiet recalibration in Beijing, or a fresh export restriction could drive nickel prices up 50% or more overnight. Battery production lines from Detroit to Düsseldorf would slow or stop. The green boom would stall, not from lack of will, but from lack of metal.
If OPEC was a vulnerability, NickelPEC is a stranglehold.
