🌊 Jakarta is Going Under
Jakarta is already 40% below sea level in places. The aquifer’s collapsed, and every wet season pushes 15–20 cm of brackish tide-water through northern districts. The government is building Nusantara, a planned second capital on Borneo’s east coast, to relocate ministries and administrative functions. This buys elites flood-proof real estate, but it will not create fresh water or land for 30 million Javanese still living in Jakarta’s basin.
📉 The Math Doesn’t Work
Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency projects that by 2045, Java, just 7% of the country’s landmass, will still host ≈60% of Indonesians. The Berantas, Bengawan Solo, and Citarum river system is already overallocated. Rice imports will begin before the decade ends, potable water shortages sooner.
🧭 The Vector Points South
Once water runs out in Java and Bali, models say between 2033 and 2037, survival migration will be inevitable. The natural pressure release is toward northern Australia.
🚢 Forward-Settlement Signs Already Visible:
1️⃣ Fishing Camps in the MOU Box
Ashmore, Cartier, and Scott Reef camps routinely swell with 2–3× recorded crew numbers, many never leave.
2️⃣ Northern Territory Pastoral MOUs
Pastoral leases, majority foreign-owned and short on labour, are signing direct-hire agreements with Flores, Sumba, and Madurese co-ops. “Technical trainees” in name, expatriate nodes in reality.
3️⃣ Pelni Ferries Turned Condos
Decommissioned ferries gifted to eastern regencies now run monthly Dundas Strait “educational” charters, but AIS tracking shows they are floating dormitories.
📈 The Soft Demographic Wedge
Within a decade, the coastal strip from Broome to Cape York could see 400–600k legal Indonesian guest-settlers, plus a similar number informally domiciled. Not a stormtrooper invasion, just physics meeting population density.
⚠️ Not Invasion, Just Survival
Once drinking water becomes a once-a-week ration, ordinary Jakartans will cross the Timor Gap in anything that floats. The real question:
Which flag flies at morning muster in camps outside Darwin?
2. 📚 State Library of South Australia
3. 📚 St. Gallen Abbey Library
4. 📚 Duke Humfrey’s Library, Oxford
5. 📚 Admont Monastery Library
7. 📚 State Library Victoria
8. 📚 Royal Portuguese Cabinet of Reading
9. 📚 Wiblingen Monastery Library
10. 📚 Bibliothèque Sainte-Geneviève